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https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1813358076868653239
Updated. Biden now w/ a 53% chance of winning. A reminder:
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
This has been this way since the Great Leap Forward. It’s one of the reasons why the great famine happened, because local officials were under such pressure to meet steel quotas and industrial targets. The imperial Chinese states also relied on local levies and taxation, but not to the current extent.
There are two things going on here. One is the 538 simulation, which uses Prof. Lichtman’s factors for re-election (including incumbency bonus, and economic bonuses for if you believe the official Bureau of Labor Statistics figures). By the way, Prof. Lichtman also predicts a Biden win. Then there’s the polling average prediction, which is the 27% chance figure using only polling averages.
Today’s polls all show Biden with a lead. Even Harris has a lead, which is surprising to me. It is an NPR poll, but still.
Near where the In n Out closed.
https://x.com/DougKass/status/1806675647403536393 Jill Biden has engaged in 5 full years of elder abuse.
