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The narrow figures are based on adult citizens, while the broad figures are based on all adult residents. That makes the gap between the two look slightly bigger than a like-for-like comparison would.
Anyway, I think MAGA has plateaued, as mentioned earlier. If you’re somehow trying to suggest otherwise, apparently, I guess we’ll see in a couple years. Trump as a proxy for MAGA has had ~30% support as a baseline for quite some time. He could kill someone on 5th avenue, “pal around” with Epstein for decades, get accused of rape by dozens of women, fuck our entire country up, destroy our alliances, align us with Russia, launch a nuclear weapon, tariff the world, engage in epic amounts of corruption, and many other things… And that 30% would still support him. They are cult members.
This guy gets it (only 24 second video):
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
By the way, unless there is regime change, Iran will emerge from this war much more powerful. This whole thing is epically shortsighted. But I realize MAGA, Trump, this community, conservatives, and the WSJ live in some alternate reality where this is somehow a good idea. Maybe I’m jumping to conclusions about all of you. But nobody here has said otherwise. Feel free to speak up. I remember every conservative back in the day was in favor of the Iraq war … until they weren’t.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
Ok Hurlburt88. That’s an opinion piece. Summary: the military side of the Iran war is going well, so don’t elect a Congress that would defund it. It’s interesting to see the alternative reality some people live in. I assume you agree.
I find the escalation a huge mistake. I hope to God I’m wrong.
The Pentagon counted 18 dead and more than 830 wounded from the earlier strikes. A Pentagon inspector general report found that Iranian strikes damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings and other structures at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and elsewhere.
The Gulf states have arguably been hit hardest. Around 80 energy facilities across the have been struck by Iranian missiles and drones, with repair costs estimated at ~$58 billion.
The gulf countries were desperately trying to get us not to escalate. But from the headlines just now, that is apparently too late.
I worry this will escalate out of control. I believe Trump is going more by his gut than by any sober analysis of the consequences. I don’t think he gives a shit about the consequences and is surrounded by yes-men who are afraid to give him anything other than what he wants to hear.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
Not sure where the data is from, but the table contradicts its own claim. From 2022 on, the ranges run 75–95, 60–95, 65–80, 75–95, 75–90 million. They overlap almost completely. That’s a plateau, not acceleration.
Recent polling also suggests 2026 in the table is overstated:
ABC/Washington Post/Ipsos, mid-October 2026: 22% of adults described themselves as supporters of the MAGA movement, and 75% said they were not. Applied to roughly 260 million US adults, that’s on the order of 55–60 million, well below 75–90.
NBC News: 30 percent of registered voters identify as MAGA supporters, which works out to a similar ballpark.
But I’ll grant that it remains one of the largest cults in American history.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
I’ll preface this by saying I’m not a DSA supporter. But the Constitution explicitly provides a mechanism for changing itself: Article V, and we’ve used it 27 times.
Taking an oath to uphold the Constitution doesn’t mean swearing that it must remain unchanged forever. It means respecting the Constitution and the rule of law, including the established processes for amending it.
By your reasoning, anyone who advocated abolishing slavery, granting women the right to vote, or changing how senators are elected would have been violating their constitutional oath.
You can certainly disagree with the DSA’s proposals. I disagree with some of them myself. But advocating fundamental constitutional reforms isn’t the same as attempting to overthrow the Constitution.
The relevant question is whether these individuals intend to pursue their objectives through lawful, democratic means. If they do, there’s no contradiction between their proposals and their oath of office.
I think the real concern should be actions the current regime has taken or tried to take which have been ruled unconstitutional. For example, the Supreme Court ruled in June that Trump’s executive order attempting to restrict birthright citizenship violated the Fourteenth Amendment. Federal courts have also declared executive orders targeting law firms unconstitutional, and struck down provisions of Trump’s executive order attempting to impose new federal election rules. The administration also attempted to freeze substantial amounts of federal spending previously authorized by Congress.
Surely actually violating the Constitution is more concerning than proposing to democratically amend it.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
Iraq doesn’t meaningfully sit between the two countries. Do you think in a real war Iran gives a shit about the ~70 mile sliver of land between them?
How? Iranian-backed militant networks, sabotage, cyberattacks, or direct Iranian retaliation after Trump’s escalation. Kuwait has already experienced missile and drone attacks against American military installations on its territory. An October 14 Atlantic Council analysis actually suggested that Kuwait might be the Gulf country at greatest risk from the conflict, considering its geographic exposure and economic vulnerabilities.
Iran doesn’t need to cross Iraqi territory to attack Kuwait. Iranian missiles and drones can easily cross that distance, and Iranian vessels can approach Kuwait directly through Gulf waters.
Kuwait’s geographic proximity also explains why Iranian-backed militias in southern Iraq are such a concern. They’re practically next door.
Whether it’s Iran or Iranian backed Shia militias, it’s a distinction without a difference. The American military presence hasn’t prevented Iran from repeatedly attacking U.S. installations in Kuwait. In fact, those bases make Kuwait a particularly attractive target.
Just this week, Kuwait sentenced three men to death for an alleged Iranian-linked conspiracy to assassinate its interior minister, prompting a diplomatic confrontation with Tehran.
Yes, a conventional Iranian takeover is highly unlikely. But I wouldn’t confuse the presence of American military forces with immunity from Iranian aggression and destabilization. Kuwait has very legitimate reasons to be nervous.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
>I don’t know enough of the backstory.
Trump doesn’t either. That’s the fucking problem.
It also looks like Trump is doing a speed run to fuck over the Middle East. It’s insane. He’s destabilized the region and abandoning the Arabs at the same time. Iran could well take over Kuwait and their oil and they’re fucking over Saudi Arabia while Trump tells the Saudis they’re on their own. I guess Witkoff and Kushner got a better deal with Putin, so who needs the Saudis anymore. I seriously hope I’m wrong. But if you listen to Trump “we have Venezuela and Greenland”, so it’s all cool. JFC.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
I specifically deep-linked to the spot I was asking about (notice the “t=1862” at the end of the link). The segment is a minute or two, if I recall correctly. Not two-hours. But I think I found the answer to my own question today:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/senator-reveals-trumps-insane-plan-for-after-the-election
…Yeah, I know what “the deep state” means in a literal sense. But I also know for all intents and purposes it’s basically a pseudo-conspiratorial thing along with “the globalists”. There’s always a grain of reality to these things, but the point of labeling them is to turn off critical thinking and just chalk it all up to “the deep state”. Don’t like a decision or policy? Must be “the deep state” or “the globalists”. Or George Soros, of course. Incidentally, Elon Musk is everything the right wing crazies ever thought about Soros, multiplied by 100. But nobody on the right mentions him. Meanwhile, he’s just spent nearly half a billion on this election alone. It’s insane…. All brought to you by the conservatives in the Supreme Court and conservatives in Congress who always votes against campaign finance laws.
Anyway, I have simply found replacing “the deep state” with “the rule of law” to be a shorthand for understanding most of the complaints that mention it.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
Democrats will win. That seems to be quite clear, whether you look at prediction markets, polls, leaked internal polls, or even focus groups of non-MAGA Republicans and conservatives. But Trump will pull some kind of bullshit. And by some, I mean a fuck ton.
He’s already ramping up the “fraud” accusations to sew doubt about the election. Among other things, he’s already having “his” DOJ sue multiple states about not certifying elections or throwing out endless ballots. He’s announced arrests of “non-citizen voters”. He’s been threatening poll workers with imprisonment if they simply do their jobs and count all the votes. And much more.
MAGA will eat all this shit up. The vast, vast majority of it (like 99.9% or 100%) will mostly likely end up being proven to be utter bullshit, like in 2020, but by then it won’t matter. He’ll have “discredited” the elections, sewn doubt, and most on the right will believe enough of it. And if all his BS fails, he’ll find some excuse(s) to void the results.
Various things he may do or have his lackey do:
- Mike Johnson will refuse to seat some Democrats.
- Some states will refuse to certify their own ballots if Democrats win.
- Same with some counties run by Republicans.
- My long-shot, but not as long as it should be, is escalating the Iran war further, and then declaring some sort of state of emergency and, for all intents and purposes, arrogating more power to himself and effectively voiding the election results.
It’s like one of those laws of thermodynamics. When you heat up a pot of water, you may not be able to predict where any specific atom or molecule is at any moment, but you know that everything is getting hotter. Likewise with this election. Trump has a fuck ton of shit planned and in progress. I don’t know all of it. I don’t know which of it will succeed. But I do know that in one form or another, his anti-democratic assault on our elections is a mortal lock.
One thing I know for sure: Trump doesn’t know how to lose. He doesn’t know how to concede. He doesn’t believe in democracy unless he’s the winner. He’s shown a lifelong commitment to the idea that any loss by him or his side is illegitimate by definition. And he’s now built a political machine to enforce that concept.
The next few months will be quite a shitstorm for our country due to Iran and for our democracy. That’s my prediction. I hope I’m wrong.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
Yeah, that’s what I was trying to say. But as you can see in all my edits, the formatting wasn’t cooperating and I gave up. My point may not have been clear.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
Hope he loses. But I’m less concerned with him per se than our “leaders” who came to his defense. At least the Republican governor of Ohio had enough common sense and ethics to agree it was disgusting. But not the leaders of our country.
Trump doubled down and criticized the Republican Governor of Ohio (DeWine) for having some ethics. Said he is sorry ever supported DeWine.
And Vance praised Ramaswamy for having the “audacity” to run it. He said whether it was appropriate wasn’t really his concern (i.e., ethics don’t matter — but we already knew that about Vance). His criticism, like Trump, was directed at Republicans who objected. He told reporters he was “disgusted” by fellow Republicans pushing back against the ad.
This is one of those litmus tests about just how low the Republican Party can go. There is no bottom, apparently.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
Mick, I’m glad you agree on Putin. Curious if you also agree that it would be beyond the pale for Trump to be doing business deals with Putin?
I’m alluding to the fact that Trump is sending his business guys and family member (Witkoff and Kushner) to negotiate with Putin. They’ve been doing deals in the Middle East, as well. Now the connections are becoming clear:
Here’s a summary:
The video covers reporting from the Financial Times and New York Times on Polar LNG, a $25 billion Alaska gas export venture marketed as a US energy-security project. The project publicly planned to buy discounted equipment from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project in Siberia. Former CEO Joe Riddle says he discovered that financing he believed came from a UAE investor actually originated with Novatek, a sanctioned Russian energy giant the speaker describes as effectively Putin’s own company. WhatsApp messages reportedly show a Novatek executive discussing up to $15 million in financing and pushing to speed up transfers, even before the US Treasury had approved any dealings. Riddle resigned in September, other senior executives followed, and they warned the administration and urged an investigation.
Gentry Beach, a longtime Trump ally and friend of Donald Trump Jr., signed a separate agreement with Novatek on Alaska gas development. Putin reportedly discussed Alaska energy cooperation with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner during Ukraine peace talks. The FT also described a possible arrangement in which Novatek would supply technology in exchange for sanctions relief. Then, on October 16, Trump waived major Russia provisions of the Graham Act, which specifically names Novatek and Arctic LNG 2. To the speaker, this removed exactly the legal obstacle the deal would have faced. He adds that Riddle’s replacement, Timothy Talkington, sits on the board of Russian aluminum company Rusal.
The whole thing looks like personal business deals masquerading as diplomacy and an end-run around sanctions Congress passed overwhelmingly.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
The crazy thing is — gas prices are going even higher than when I posted this. But Trump admits he doesn’t care because “we’re” making a fortune.
“I can just see the fake headlines,” Trump said. “President Trump is talking about all the money they’re making while people are suffering at the pump.”
“But I said, ‘I don’t give a damn, I’m gonna say it: We’re making a frickin fortune,’” he added.
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When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
Actually, Legend, I stand partially corrected. I said above, “I didn’t say Trump did this.” And I didn’t. But it turns out that, yes, Trump and his pro Russian clan is not blameless.
While these kids are getting murdered, Hegseth is sitting on an authorization to allow the transfer of Patriot missiles through the PURL program that other countries already purchased from the United States.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/patriot-delays-add-growing-rift-001608059.html
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
I didn’t say Trump did this. But he’s not making any effort to end this war. He’s too busy making deals with Putin. Why do you think he sent business buddies and family members over to Russia, rather than diplomats? Why do you think he got rid of his envoy, General Keith Kellogg, who was actually in favor of helping Ukraine win and had far more relevant experience than Half-witkoff (a guy who cherishes his meetings with Putin) and Trumps son-in-law?
Putin is an evil Fuck. Why the fuck are Trump’s cronies and family doing business deals with them? Why aren’t we arming Ukraine? Why are we rolling out the red carpet for this asshole who is telling Iran how to bomb us and helping Iran develop supersonic missiles to hit us and our allies?
Do you think there will be “peace for our time” like Neville Chamberlain declared after doing a deal with Hitler? I joked about that a couple years ago. And here we are — actually doing deals with Russia. I guess the argument that somehow being friends with them will appease them? And meanwhile Trump’s friends and family can get rich on a sweet Lukoil deal?
What’s my solution? Arming Ukraine. They’re beating Russia on the font line with one arm tied behind their back. In the last couple months they’ve taken more territory back then Russia has gained. And Russia has been losing upwards of 50,000 casualties a month (almost as many as we lost in the entire Vietnam war in one month). This is despite the fact that Trump withdrew material support from Ukraine in March 2025.
If we actually gave a fuck about Ukraine we would be arming them and pressuring Russsia. But instead Trump is making friends with Putin; he and Musk are removing Starlink from Ukraine; they’re removing Star Shield; Trump is rolling out the red carpet for Putin, literally; he’s doing business deals with Putin; he’s removing all sanctions; and the cherry on top — he’s blaming Ukraine for being invaded.
Where the fuck is your outrage at this weak shit?
Ukraine is doing quite well without our assistance. Imagine how well they would do if we actually helped them.
I remember the criticism of Biden was that he was too weak and too slow providing aid. And didn’t provide enough aid. And now Trump is 10 times worse, but somehow there’s not fucking peep from anyone here about that.
Amazing.
One of the worst things is: they crippled Starlink INSIDE Ukraine. You want to make an argument that Starlink shouldn’t be used inside Russia for military purposes? That’s something debatable. But they crippled it INSIDE Ukraine. What the fuck?
Do you not see that Trump is pro Russian? He can barely contain himself. The only reason he’s put up with Ukraine even a tiny bit is because Congress had mandated aid and most Americans are on Ukraine’s side. Trump isn’t. I do hope you aren’t under any other impression by this point.
When you understand "the deep state" simply refers to the rule of law, it makes much more sense.
