Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
-
What should the West do to bring about the healthiest, but realistic end to the current situation? This is obviously a precarious and dangerous place we all find ourselves in. Is there a path forward that doesn’t end in nuclear war or some other global catastrophe and how do we get there?
-
Regardless of what we should do, or your answer to the above question, what do you expect will happen medium to long term? In other words, when we look back some years from now, what will Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and relations with Russia look like? In other words, what do you think will happen or what are the most likely outcome(s)?
First, we’re doing it. We’re giving Ukraine as much support as we can afford to give; e.g., without Uncle Vlad trying to impale us with a bunch of hydrogen bombs. We’ve turned to Soviet Union…excuse me, Russia…into an international pariah, and we’ve ruined their economy. We still have one more economic arrow to let fly: MFN status. Sheer coincidence, Vladimir Putin wrote his law school thesis on the legal structures surrounding Most Favored Nation status.
Ukraine is finished as a viable country, though I’m not sure that’s a bad thing. It was as corrupt a country as there is, ranking #122 of 180 countries on the “least corrupt index.” Ukraine has many natural resources. Russia may try to leverage here, but the pressure that the Americans are keeping up should keep them at bay.
America will finish out ahead. France and Germany were reminded that Russians are pure thugs, they’ll be back in NATO, and closer than ever, as with Sweden, Finland (both of whom should join NATO) and the rest of the world will fully and completely ostracize Russia and get closer to the good ol’ U.S. of A.
China stood on the sidelines too long. They were too visible a partner to Russia. When Russia’s finished, China will be the lone remaining economic/military power that the USA needs to contend with. America will drive closer relationships with Japan, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries as they fear the Chinese threat.
In six months — assuming there’s no nuclear war — America will finish up on top.
My guess: I think China will rape Russia economically. Russia has been “cancelled” by the west and isolated economically, so China will seize their opportunity.
The Chinese are not ones to ever let a good crisis go to waste…
You’re right, Defcon Level 2.
I had it wrong. I thought 3 would be it but we are now at 2.
Pretty sure we’re at 3. We’ve only been at 2 twice, during the Cuban missile crisis and briefly at the beginning of the first Gulf War (thought that condition existed only for portions of the military, not the entire U.S. Military).
We’ve been at DefCon 3:
- Now
- During 9/11
- Yom Kippur War
- Operation Paul Bunyan (Korean tensions in 1976).
https://www.defconlevel.com/history/defcon-level-in-1976.php
Fox is reporting that Ukrainian citizens are asking a couple simple questions; If you saw this coming for 60-90 days, why didn’t you do anything until after the fact? Why sanctions as opposed to weapons? Two very fair questions. The West has abandoned Ukraine. Shameful.
See Pullout, Afghanistan.
Good post. What exactly are the rules of capitalism and who writes them? You could argue FASBs? I know it’s supposed to be the AICPA but I heard once it used to a guy who worked in Stanford CT and wrote the guidance for Thomson. He was the “translator.”
The Financial Accounting Standards Board translates the rules of a five hundred year old system that focuses on the value of hard assets. It uses about 200 variables. The typical analyst of a publicly-traded company uses about 800 variables, inclusive of the 200 financial variables, and tries to convey value based on items that don’t fit onto the balance sheet, income statement or statement of cash flows.
There are other entities; e.g., the SEC. But value races ahead of what is commonly considered reasonable measures of value.
You guys have really screwed up your social credit system profiles. You may find yourself blacklisted from Starbucks soon.
As long as I can still go to Philz…
Shortly before the collapse, I was working on a partnership with Carrier and Enron to provide conditioned air as a service. Interesting concept. That said, the Enron guys were the most arrogant folks I’ve ever come across.
To that point, about five years ago, the head of our Corporate law department asked me if I wanted to host Jeff Fastow (former CFO of Enron, and architect of the disaster), who was on a post-prison apology tour. Fastow also taught a collegiate-level accounting class on footnotes that essentially focused on how CFOs cheat through footnotes…more on that later.
I had done it 20 years earlier with the CEO of ZZZZ Best, and it was very entertaining. I agreed, and Fastow spoke before about 200 CPAs, bankers and lawyers.
Fastow was the most unrepentant “repentant” person I’ve ever seen. The first five minutes and last five minutes were insistent apologies, self-flagellation, “It was so hard to tell my wife that I was going to prison” (It shouldn’t have been that hard, she was an Enron employee who went to prison, too). The middle 50 minutes was a lengthy, circuitous explanation as to why what he did really wasn’t illegal. His biggest laugh line was “No CPA or lawyer ever told me what I did was wrong.”
The peak of his speech was his description of his accounting class main project. He provided his class with a set of redacted financial statements, and the class spent weeks pouring over footnotes that substantially exaggerated the financial health of the underlying entity. The “Big Reveal” is that the financial statements turn out to be those of the university that the students attended.
Upshot: the students are in an uproar, demanding that a firmly worded letter be send to the Trustees and Finance Department demanding that the offending accounting policies be revoked or revised, and the financial statements be restated to conform to generally accepted accounting principles.
Then, Fastow drops the big bomb: if the financial statements are revised, it will cause their individual tuition to increase by $20,000 a year. The students then re-vote and decide to refrain from sending the letter to the BoT and Finance.
So Fastow’s big lesson was that if fresh-faced, innocent college students could act so sleazily in their best interest, what choice did he have but to do the same as the CFO at Enron?
Sleazy, sleazy character.
I’m guessing they’re trying to prevent a collapse a la Arthur Andersen if things do go south for the Donald.
Probably a good policy. I was at Andersen shortly before the post-Enron collapse Great Cratering. There are four things we should keep in mind re the Andersen collapse:
First, Andersen’s Technical Standards group acted in an advisory capacity only. The field audit partner (in this case, a 41-year old Dave Duncan, who had been equity partner for just one year on the third-largest audit fee client in the country) could overrule the TS group advice. At all of the other Big Five, the TS findings were mandatory, although at least one of the other Big Five figured out how to circumvent the TS group…but that’s another story.
Secondly, Enron wasn’t Andersen’s only stinker, just the last in a long line of stinkers (MCI Worldcom, Waste Management, Rite Aid, Cendant, Bausch & Lomb, Sunbeam, Superior Bank, Dollar General etc.)
Third, Andersen was ultimately exonerated. The USSC unanimously overturned the Andersen conviction (Arthur Andersen LLP v. United States, 125 S. Ct. 2129, 2005 WL 1262915 U.S. May 31, 2005) due to improper jury instructions. Although it didn’t matter, Andersen accountants had scattered to the wind, their savings and retirement accounts taken to satisfy Enron’s shareholders.
Fourth, Andersen lives on. Mark Vorsatz (who I partnered with in the most improbable win of my career) was a tax partner who created Andersen Tax Services in 2002 (now just called Andersen) which is today the largest independent corporate tax specialty firm in the world.
The NY AG really, REALLY wants to get into the dozens of file cabinets at Trump Towers. Predictably, Trump’s representatives say they would be of no interest to the authorities. Do tell…
The highway administration’s recently released 2020 report on bridge conditions shows California with 12,898 bridges in good condition, 11,329 in fair condition and 1,536 in poor condition. But we’re actually doing better than we did a few years ago:
Nah, the Chinese won’t lock up an American.
Actually…I wonder about that. I think the Chinese would be looking for an excuse. After all, “When in Rome…”
-
