[rjnwmill]

If I recall correctly, that independent DoJ that serves us removed the qualified forensic accountants months before they entered those hard nosed plea bargain negotiations?

Ps: the testimony of the IRS Supervisor in charge of the Hunter Biden Tax Case is to be released today by Ways & Means. I imagine Garland’s gonna have some ‘splainin to do.

“DOJ HQ allowed the statute of limitations to expire on alleged offenses dating back to 2014 when Joe Biden was veep and Hunter was raking in $1 million a year from corrupt Ukrainian energy company Burisma.”

”Shapley hit the roof in October when he discovered time had run out on years of painstaking work. But once he blew the whistle, the DOJ removed his entire team of 12 tax investigators from the Hunter case, ensuring it could go no further.”

• This reply was modified 2 years, 10 months ago by rjnwmill.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Does/can the Fed control inflation now?  The treasury has a mountain of debt to refinance; several trillions of maturing debt, several trillion of current deficit spending and the Fed must shrink their balance sheet.

We will see the phenomenon known as “crowding out” during the next 18 months. The appetite for US debt will drive rates more than the Fed. I think today’s action reinforces this view

The Fed’s only policy “choice” is more funny money. Good luck with that.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Right you are.

And Cornfed, what is inflation and how do you measure whether it’s meeting your expectations?

I believe price inflation has now exceeded real wage growth for 26 straight months. This is the longest period of purchasing power erosion in our history? (And Joe’s been President for 27 months)

I believe there is pain. As highlighted earlier, Costco has reported diminishing average transaction sizes and the shifting from discretionary items to essentials.

Add to this, the Fed shrinking their balance sheet, the bank balance sheet problems, the debt overhang to refinance at higher rates and the commercial r/e valuation issues and I think we’re just getting started. But hey, what do I know. (Some months ago someone I respect told me things will start being more visible around July 4th.)

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Well Governor, hasn’t he won hearts and minds…you know, it’s sometimes called the Republican base?

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

I believe the hotels have a five year balloon that is due in the fall. I suspect inflation/Fed response/higher rates/reduced occupancy make the operation uneconomic?  The city’s criminal justice reform is degrading the retail environment.

This is a canary not an outlier. No wonder Newsom is looking to fail upwards.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

NO MALARKEY, this is the opening sentence in your first post!

”It became a banana republic when we elected Trump.”

If you can’t see the relevance of Carlson’s comments to your statement, I can’t help you.

But I am flattered that you’ve devoted so much time to my shortcomings. If it’s the worst people can say after seventy years, I may try to feed my dinner guests on two fish and five loaves.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

“Trump is guilty or whether he should have been indicted. It’s another example of the bizarre tangents you go on, changing the subject, every time I have ever engaged with you.”

You suggested initially that we became a banana republic when Trump was elected. I think my reply addresses your assertion directly. And you’re old enough to know your narrative is false on its face.

Has the popular usage of “gay” changed during your life time?  You remember homosexual?  Which term is more descriptive of the underlying behavior?  Why was “gay” appropriated?

How about the name change from gay related immune deficiency to acquired immune deficiency to AIDS?

Has the rainbow been appropriated for use as a descriptor for sexual preference?

When did you notice that pedophiles preferred minor attracted adults.

When did one’s ideological opposition become nazis? Racists? White supremicists?

Carlson’s point, and you know it, and plead ignorance so you didn’t have to address the obvious shortcomings of your assertion, is that language has been appropriated to shift power in our culture. This perversion of language is intentional and has been underway over the last 30 years at least. Trump’s election had little to do with these cultural changes that have brought us to the our current state. This change process has been deliberate and profound and has been used to suppress speech. That’s been the path to banana republic status and you know it, you’ve lived it. (And for the sake of accuracy, Carlson is distributing his content on Twitter not Instagram.)

Lastly, as to the relative severity of the offenses by Biden & Trump, that’s a matter of personal opinion.

”If Hillary or Biden did something this egregious and tried to cover it up, then throw the book at them too. But they’ve been investigated to death by Republicans and so far it’s all a bunch of malarkey.”

You’re entitled to your opinion. But it is amusing as could be to see you establish your own correctness by edict. Are you really that insecure?  My OPINION is that a public official who knowingly and deliberately perverts public policy for personal monetary gain is about as bad as it gets.  And in the current case, Biden fed off of Ukrainian corruption when official US policy was to get Ukraine to clean up its act. Treason likely is worse, but Trump isn’t accused of that, is he?  But hey, that’s just my OPINION. I state it for the record not expecting to change your mind.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Take your pick, the IG report highlighting DoJ/FBI misconduct or Durham’s final report. Give them a read and let me know if you want to stick with the narrative about the integrity of “republican” leadership as an excuse for this BS?  And recall some of this conduct occurred under Trump appointee AG Barr. I’ve been redundant with countless assertions that DC is badly broken because of failures from both sides of the aisle.

As to Carlson’s observations, invest the 12 minutes then comment about his thoughts here specifically. Uninformed generalizations about his work/perspective suggest you’re comfortable in your state of bliss.

And the laptop contents specifically highlight the Biden family “business” relationships, Hunter’s financial obligations to his old man and uncle and insight into the web of LLC’s used in their “business”. That he liked to conduct that “business” in a state of undress and in the company of hookers, to each his own. Defend it to your hearts content while you reflect on the old saying we get the government we deserve.  I’ve got us both to thank…I think. I’m simply less willing to accept it going forward.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Let’s not go all 1619 here and try to misrepresent history. This bullshit began before Trump. Let’s not forget Obama & Biden were briefed pre election 2016 about the Clinton campaign’s intent to lie about Russian collusion. August of 2016 if memory serves?  They sat by silently as political actors in the FBI and the Congress crippled our elected government for two years.  That’s not banana republic?

Biden bragged about his methodology for extorting money from Ukraine. Bribery doesn’t meet your definition?  Banana Republic perhaps?

They used the FBI and social media to bury the laptop story during the 2020 election cycle.  The FBI  had possession of the laptop a year before the election.  No indictments yet…four years later?  Hmmm

I’d suggest you invest twelve or so minutes watching Tucker Carlson episode 2. “Cling to your Taboos”. Trump has nothing to do with the cultural transformation that some seek to impose. And for what it’s worth, you need a new elevator speech. Trump wasn’t the beginning of our nations history or the current descent.

https://twitter.com/tuckercarlson/status/1666928190445477890?s=42

And as to the indictment, just between us, do you take what the DoJ/FBI seriously, still?  After lying to the FISA Court?  After launching investigations without predication?  After classifying parents and Catholics as domestic terrorists?  After examining the roster of low lifes populating Jack Smith’s team. Who’s on the kool-aide?

One PS, who came to mind when you saw Biden deliver his, “I’m honest” line?  A hint for you, think of politicians with the initials RN.  A guy who said, “I did not have sex with that woman, Miss Lewinsky”?  Anyway, thanks for your post.  I always get a good laugh.  And just in the last two days the field has begun to rationalize.  No Hutchison and no Pence.

• This reply was modified 2 years, 10 months ago by rjnwmill.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

The problems are institutional. The Barr DoJ had evidence of Biden criminality since 2017.  They had the whistleblower report and 200 suspicious activity reports by independent banking institutions. They had the laptop since 2019. Yet DoJ didn’t step up to correct the record during the 2020 election cycle. Hell, these items remain open two and a half years after he left office.  If one thinks that it is important for the next president to completely reset the institutional priorities and upgrade performance, this is perhaps a tough record to run on?

When I look at the field, who can go balls out to clean out the swamp without engaging in personal retribution?  I don’t know. Trump failed in his first try. He gave us Sessions & Barr, a failed SoS and SoD. He was late pulling the trigger on Comey and then put in Wray.

Who else in the field might do better?  To the best of my knowledge, this topic is being discussed in the House, less so on the campaign trail…and the House seems to be flailing. We’ll see.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

Thanks Mick.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

[quote quote=7293]Mick Jr. has a mid-management position at Nvidia…he’s fairly optimistic about the economy.[/quote]

Hopefully they have a generous option plan for mid managers and that Mick Jr. is fully vested. 😉

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

No.

The Hill is looking backwards, not forwards.  It’s difficult to see the hazards in front of you when you’re looking exclusively in the rear view mirror.

Yellen screwed the pooch. In 2021 when the Fed opened the floodgates long term interest rates were significantly reduced. The Treasury failed to take advantage of an unusual opportunity to increase the duration of the nations debt obligations. Now over 50% of the outstanding portfolio has to be refinanced over the next 30 months. The appetite for longer durations is drying up. Short term t-bill rates are up from 50 basis to 550 basis points in the last two years. Accordingly debt service costs are going parabolic with no hope of slowing down.

As to the “health” of the consumer, there’s this:

“Another data point: “Costco’s average transaction. Its ticket size fell 3½% in the U.S. and 4.2% globally. The company’s CFO also noted that COST customers are downshifting from more expensive discretionary items into cheaper “essentials”. This reflects a pattern being reported by most retailers, outside of the luxury segment.””

Mick, I think we’re in the first three innings, not the last three innings of this virus initiated economic dislocation…and policy failures out of DC will exacerbate the problems.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

The social security  actuarial life table tells us that Biden has a 14% chance of dying before the election; Trump 10%. That implies the likelihood of a second Trump Biden matchup is less than 78% based simply on mortality. Factoring in the risk of further public exposure of Biden’s past criminal activities, Trump’s ongoing battles with political elements of large governmental institutions and the slings and arrows of opponents in the nominating process and who knows?  I don’t, but I’d guess the chance of Trump/Biden part duex is less than 50/50; perhaps significantly less?

All I know is the Republican field is far stronger than the Democrats.  However the Democrats are far superior in ballot harvesting and the creation of ineligible ballots.

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[rjnwmill]

There you go again, believing what politicians say?  You ever hear the old one, once burnt, twice shy?  You think it might apply to political speech? (That saying is an unqualified statement that applies to the bull shit from both sides of the aisle?)

Trump walked on the position you’ve highlighted during his CNN Town Hall appearance, openly…unequivocally, no?  Asked why his position has changed on policy course corrections during debt ceiling negotiations…he answered simply…”I’m no longer president”.  Until now did you think his political speech was/is somehow different?

Here's a toast with one last pour, may it last forever and a minute more;
Good fortune seems to you have sung, to live and love way past long

[Author]

Posts