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My guess: I think China will rape Russia economically. Russia has been “cancelled” by the west and isolated economically, so China will seize their opportunity.
NO MALARKEY
You didn’t. Neodymium’s posted previously that he blamed, in part, the western press and said Putin didn’t want this war.
NO MALARKEY
A few days ago it was the West’s fault for goading Russia into this war and now you’re complaining that we didn’t send in enough arms over the last few months which would have been even more provocative.
NO MALARKEY
You really think the west isn’t doing anything? You’re reading different news than I am. Even Germany is now providing weapons.
regardless, it’s a risky thing sending arms, medical supplies, logistics, intelligence to fight your neighbor who has nuclear bombs.
so I don’t blame anyone for taking a cautious approach. But the west seems to be all in on support.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-coordinate-arms-shipments-ukraine/NO MALARKEY
I actually came here looking for some insight, thinking a few of you might give some thoughtful responses without turning it into political axe grinding. My initial question was very nonpolitical and I thought it therefore might garner some dispassionate responses to a very serious issue. Naïve of me, I suppose.
In the meantime, I did come across a well thought-out prediction (the kind I was inquiring about in my initial post above) on another site. In case anyone’s interested, I’ll paste it here:
All available evidence is, they’re on the verge of a pincer movement: push south on Kyiv out of Belarus, push north on Dnipro out of Crimea, meet in the middle around Cherkasy. Then, fortify the fuck out of the line of the Dnieper, and double-dare NATO to counter-attack while they surround and capture the remaining eastern half of Ukraine. Then, you let China “broker” a “peace” of a divided Ukraine, where a western rump state centered on Lviv is free to join Europe and the eastern half is absorbed by Russia.
Tactically, it has a lot going for it. It’s limited in scope, well within their capabilities, doesn’t leave exposed flanks or potentially over-extend, and operates within natural frontiers. It’s basically recreating a cauldron battle.
Strategically, it has a lot going for it too. NATO will help defend western Ukraine, but they can’t risk going east because it puts them on Russia’s doorstep. If you’re Russia, and you figure it’s when not if Ukraine joins NATO and the EU, and once they do it’s too risky to attack, now is the perfect time. You secure your frontier, you gain a major breadbasket and series of ports, and you get to look strong to your public.
But on a grand strategic level, it seems a bit insane. Even leaving aside the possible risk of nuclear war, it doesn’t make much sense. Russia’s economy is only about the size of Texas’s, and the whole of Ukraine’s economy is only about the size of a small state like Nebraska, or a mid-size city like Washington, DC. They’ll become an instant pariah, and be sanctioned to the eyeballs, in return for…half of DC? With a population that mostly hates them, and will never accept it? And to stay economically viable, they’ll have to essentially become a Chinese vassal? It seems a bit of a steep price to me.
I can only assume this is mostly about internal Russian politics. Ukraine is no threat to invade, and a NATO member Ukraine is no more dangerous than a NATO member Estonia. This appears to be betting that the long term economic hit won’t surpass the short term gains, ie what happened in Georgia and Crimea.
[Putin] needs a small winnable conventional war. A fast grab entirely behind a major river frontier, against a small country alone, 300 miles from Moscow fits that. Grabbing all of Ukraine does not. In fact, even if things went well and he got all of Ukraine anyway, he’d surely give part of it back, or set it all up under a puppet.
NO MALARKEY
I was mostly just curious about expectations rather than a long thread full of political diatribes blaming the Democrats. Thank you Neodymium60 for a thoughtful answer.
As for the rest of this thread, I agree the situation has been mishandled by Democrats, but the roots of this arguably go back to the Bush administration and NATO expansion efforts over the objections of Russia and NATO allies. The Trump administration also heavily armed Ukraine with anti tank and other lethal weapons. It was a point of pride on this board that Trump had been arming Ukraine more than Obama ever did.
Of course, this has all been seen as a major threat to Russia by Putin. I’m not going to absolve Biden or the Democrats — much less Putin for that matter. As with all things, the history is more complicated. But from this board you’d think Republicans had nothing to do with Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine or any other foreign policy problems.
NO MALARKEY
I haven’t given up on the CEB, but I am overwhelmed with work and other personal issues in the last year with no end in sight so I just barely have time to read occasional updates. Once in a while I’ll try to engage. But it’s also tough being the only sane person on here 😉 kidding.
NO MALARKEY
I don’t disagree. But I just think it’s a tired trope to imply that the media is dominated by the left. I actually think the right has a much bigger advantage. The left tends to be mainstream milk-toast stuff that lefties passively pay attention to. I’m not saying it’s not influential, but it’s not followed like it is on the right.
On the right you have a huge network of self-reinforcing talking points and echo chambers that many conservatives listen to, read, watch, etc. with much more regularity because it tends to be much more personality driven with talk shows, blogs, podcasts, etc. Meanwhile on the left, things like Air America (remember that) and political personalities just don’t get any traction. I guess Rachel Maddow would be the closest thing on the left, but I barely hear about her anymore (never watched much of her anyway). Jon Stewart was big for a while, but that was ages ago. Whereas on the right I could probably name 15 personalities off the top of my head.
The right has mastered the guerilla marketing side of the media, but also have major outlets like Fox and the WSJ. Some that is by necessity since the left traditionally had a leg up on the mainstream outlets. But those outlets are 20th century things that are more and more outdated.
NO MALARKEY
I see y’all are still talking about “the media” as if it’s 1990.
Meanwhile the right wing owns most local newspapers, AM radio is a vast wasteland of right wing reactionary shows that are popular throughout the country, conservative podcast are some of the most popular, the majority of the daily top 10 trending stories in Facebook are usually right wing sources like Ben Shapiro, Breitbart, Newsmax, The Daily Caller, Dan Bongino, Fox News, Franklin Graham, etc., Rupert Murdoch has built up a global media empire, Fox is the number one cable news in America, and now we have OAN, Newmax, and even Trump is starting his own media thing. I could go on…
Its amazing to me how much mileage you all get from criticizing CNN as if it casts some great shadow on America. It doesn’t even reach 800k viewers each night and those viewers have a have a median age of 64.
just a reminder that it’s almost 2022 and the right wing has a vast network of media outlets and echo chambers.
NO MALARKEY
I predict they impose sanctions and/or blockades and try to force an agreement economically rather than militarily. Nothing will happen until after the Olympics at the earliest — though something will happen in the next few years. That’s my prediction.
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NO MALARKEY
Rogpodge: You’re right. I totally missed your vax comment. Mea culpa.
[quote quote=5425]You have, yet again, trotted out another media-created lie that has been debunked over and over. The media made up the whole bleach thing. Show me where Trump used the word bleach?[/quote]
The bleach comment was me providing the context of your “mashup” which had a clip from Kamala Harris from a year ago. She said she would get vaccinated if there was a recommendation from a credible source, but wouldn’t trust someone who recommended injecting bleach. I was paraphrasing for you since you missed the context. Here’s the full clip… And, yes, Trump didn’t use the word bleach. He talked about injecting disinfectant – a semantic difference.
Yes, it’s a complex issue, but you’re downplaying the role conservatives have played in muddying the message about getting vaccinated, mask wearing, and social distancing. I don’t think it’s simply a coincidence that most unvaccinated are conservatives. I suspect you will dismiss this, but a study was just published from U. Penn associating conservative media with a reduced willingness to engage in behaviors to prevent the spread of the virus. On the other hand, consumption of mainstream media, such as A.P. and the WSJ, was associated with greater mask wearing and greater intentions to get vaccinated.
It’s not just Newsmax or Fox. It’s talk show hosts like Dennis Prager, a very popular conservative figure, who advocates getting “natural immunity” by contracting the disease. It’s folks like Marjorie Taylor Green — popular among right wing folks — who has downplayed the number of cases, the idea that many hospitals are or have been overwhelmed by cases, and has downplayed the severity of the disease. It’s people like the four anti-vax conservative talk show hosts who subsequently died of COVID. The list on the right is too long to post here, but I’ll mention a few more:
- GOP Leader Who Fought Against Vaccine Dies After Weekslong Battle With Coronavirus
- Republican Politician Dies of COVID Complications Days After Mocking Virus
- Anti-Mask Florida Official Dies of COVID—and Takes GOP Software Secrets With Him
The list goes on… And there is an entire (misguided) website that tracks anti-vaxxers on social media that later contract the disease. They invariably tend to be conservative. You say it’s complex. And I agree. Many of these folks, for example, are white evangelicals who happen to be Republicans. But at some point it becomes a distinction without a difference when these messages get echoed on conservative media and shared on social media.
I don’t believe this is some kind of mainstream conservative belief. Everyone who works at Fox, for example, if vaccinated. And even most Republican leaders have recommended vaccinations. But it is nevertheless a real problem with conservatism and something that’s expanding beyond the fringe. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that so many other conspiratorial, anti-government things are coming out of the right wing — things like Q-Anon, Three Percenters, Proud Boys, and Oathkeepers. These things aren’t growing out of Joe Biden’s messaging. They are being fomented on the right and have been brewing long before Biden took office, including a lot of this anti-vax messaging.
I agree COVID shouldn’t be politized, but to some degree it’s impossible not to politicize it. Democrats tend to be in favor of vaccine mandates and Republicans aren’t. I think both sides are generally sincere in their beliefs, but obviously those two approaches are at odds and invariably lead to politicization.
Regarding mandates, I think the problem is that COVID has a mortality and chronic disease profile that lies in the grey area between a terrible plague and “just” a typical flu. It’s not quite deadly enough for everyone to take it seriously, but has a mortality rate that is multiple times worse than a typical flu. If it was a few times more deadly or had a disease profile like smallpox there would be no debate — everyone would be deadly serious about vaccine mandates. You wouldn’t dare send your kid to school if their friends weren’t vaccinated. If it was a little less serious and closer to a typical flu I don’t think anyone, including those on the left, would be talking about vaccine mandates.
NO MALARKEY
Rogpodge: You’re right. I totally missed your vax comment. Mea culpa.
[quote quote=5425]You have, yet again, trotted out another media-created lie that has been debunked over and over. The media made up the whole bleach thing. Show me where Trump used the word bleach?[/quote]
The bleach comment was me providing the context of your “mashup” which had a clip from Kamala Harris from a year ago. She said she would get vaccinated if there was a recommendation from a credible source, but wouldn’t trust someone who recommended injecting bleach. I was paraphrasing for you since you missed the context. Here’s the full clip… And, yes, Trump didn’t use the word bleach. He talked about injecting disinfectant – a semantic difference.
Yes, it’s a complex issue, but you’re downplaying the role conservatives have played in muddying the message about getting vaccinated, mask wearing, and social distancing. I don’t think it’s simply a coincidence that most unvaccinated are conservatives. I suspect you will dismiss this, but a study was just published from U. Penn associating conservative media with a reduced willingness to engage in behaviors to prevent the spread of the virus. On the other hand, consumption of mainstream media, such as A.P. and the WSJ, was associated with greater mask wearing and greater intentions to get vaccinated.
It’s not just Newsmax or Fox. It’s talk show hosts like Dennis Prager, a very popular conservative figure, who advocates getting “natural immunity” by contracting the disease. It’s folks like Marjorie Taylor Green — popular among right wing folks — who has downplayed the number of cases, the idea that many hospitals are or have been overwhelmed by cases, and has downplayed the severity of the disease. It’s people like the four anti-vax conservative talk show hosts who subsequently died of COVID. The list on the right is too long to post here, but I’ll mention a few more:
- GOP Leader Who Fought Against Vaccine Dies After Weekslong Battle With Coronavirus
- Republican Politician Dies of COVID Complications Days After Mocking Virus
- Anti-Mask Florida Official Dies of COVID—and Takes GOP Software Secrets With Him
The list goes on… And there is an entire (misguided) website that tracks anti-vaxxers on social media that later contract the disease. They invariably tend to be conservative. You say it’s complex. And I agree. Many of these folks, for example, are white evangelicals who happen to be Republicans. But at some point it becomes a distinction without a difference when these messages get echoed on conservative media and shared on social media.
I don’t believe this is some kind of mainstream conservative belief. Everyone who works at Fox, for example, if vaccinated. And even most Republican leaders have recommended vaccinations. But it is nevertheless a real problem with conservatism and something that’s expanding beyond the fringe. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that so many other conspiratorial, anti-government things are coming out of the right wing — things like Q-Anon, Three Percenters, Proud Boys, and Oathkeepers. These things aren’t growing out of Joe Biden’s messaging. They are being fomented on the right and have been brewing long before Biden took office, including a lot of this anti-vax messaging.
I agree COVID shouldn’t be politized, but to some degree it’s impossible not to politicize it. Democrats tend to be in favor of vaccine mandates and Republicans aren’t. I think both sides are generally sincere in their beliefs, but obviously those two approaches are at odds and invariable lead to politicization.
Regarding mandates, I don’t think the issue is as black and white as you imply. The problem is that COVID has a mortality and chronic disease profile that lies in the grey area between the Bubonic Plague and “just” a typical flu. It’s not quite deadly enough for everyone to take it seriously, but has a mortality rate that is multiple times worse than a typical flu. If it was a few times more deadly or had a disease profile like smallpox there would be no debate — everyone would be deadly serious about vaccine mandates. You wouldn’t dare send your kid to school if their friends weren’t vaccinated. If it was a little less serious and closer to a typical flu I don’t think anyone, including those on the left, would be talking about vaccine mandates.
NO MALARKEY
rogpodge: I had some family in town and was also working full-time, so finally getting a chance to reply to this …
My reading comprehension is fine. I did observe your comment about antibodies, but I took it to mean you had been infected with COVID since most folks who receive a vaccination wouldn’t otherwise get a subsequent blood test to verify antibodies in their blood. I’m sure there are exceptions and perhaps you are one of them. If you were vaccinated I’m glad to hear it. But to be fair, you were being a bit vague about it. You’re welcome to correct my assumptions about the source of your antibodies.
I realize CNN and any number of other left leaning media vilified Trump about the number of deaths for many months. It was political then and was political of Mick to do the same. Quite honestly, if Biden and Harris really were downplaying the virus or their policies were the source of the problem, then I would agree with Mick. But the numbers belie a different story. You can choose to tease out some different conclusion from the data, but it’s simply a fact that conservative adults in large numbers have been hesitant to get vaccinated and not so much on the liberal side. Whatever the reason, it’s quite a stretch to blame that on Biden.
Also, the mashup you posted was mostly out-of-context clips from before the vaccines were rolled out. The context: they were saying they wouldn’t simply trust the word of Trump – the guy who suggested injecting bleach – but said they would be happy to get vaccinated if there was a scientific consensus that the vaccines were safe. And indeed both Biden and Harris subsequently and very publicly did get vaccinated to encourage others to get it – quite the opposite of vaccine fear-mongering that your clips were trying to imply.
On the other hand, there are a lot of conservatives pushing an antivax agenda. Here’s a mashup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEJufOyAbis
You also suggested that I am conflating being anti-vax with vaccine mandates. Actually, I believe it’s just the opposite. I do distinguish between the two. But I believe many conservatives are the ones conflating these two issues. They hear from Fox News and other outlets about the “Orwellian” government (a term you used yourself) and we see in the data and in endless real-life examples that many of them are also anti-vax or fearful of getting vaccinated. I can’t prove they are conflating the two issues, but the Venn Diagram of the two groups no doubt has a significant overlap.
When Trump (to his credit) suggested his supporters should get vaccinated he was booed at rally in Alabama: https://goodwordnews.com/trump-booed-at-rally-in-alabama-after-telling-supporters-to-get-vaccinated/
Something similar happened to Lindsay Graham: https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-shout-down-rep-lindsey-graham-for-pushing-vaccine
NO MALARKEY
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This reply was modified 4 years, 5 months ago by
