rogpodge

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  • in reply to: COVID Vaccinations #4964
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    Just curious, what’s the correlation coefficient (r) of the data?  There seems to be a lot of noise in that chart.  It would be easy to “find” a correlation with political party and ignore stronger correlations to other factors / variables.  Why isn’t that in the study?  Probably because the journalists / “academics” wanted to find a result and found it.  I could probably get a stronger correlation to, say, income, education, autoimmune disease incidence, and population density.

    That being said, isn’t the solution simple, given your one-variable way of thinking?  Give Trump credit for the vaccines.

    • This reply was modified 4 years, 11 months ago by Avatarrogpodge.
    in reply to: Raging inflation. Go figure. #4957
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    Highest Annual Inflation since 2008

    This blog does a good job of aggregating and analyzing the information.  It also provides “misery index” (unemployment + inflation) and predictions based on various factors (and the Fed’s actions).

    Of interest, the current inflation trend is outpacing even the most extreme inflation scenario.  YET THE FED WANTS TO HOLD RATES LOW.

    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    That’s the problem with modern journalism.  Everything has to have a political angle to it, and blame must be assigned.  You had Ken Klippenstein from “The Intercept” trying to blame DeSantis’ deregulation event in 2019 for the building collapse.  It was a licensing reform event, and would not have affected the inspection of the building or prevented the HOA from ignoring problems relating to a poorly designed pool drainage system.  You have Sec. Granholm trying to blame it on climate change.  Why don’t people wait for the actual investigation and evidence before trying to assign blame?  (Well, because journos want to play the blame game immediately, and often to further a political agenda, rather than to get a scoop).

    in reply to: Cosby Reversal – Opinion #4908
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    As soon as the trial court dismissed the claim of immunity, I thought the verdict was in trouble.

    That’s the problem with giving immunity (and why there are so many processes and levels of review generally to obtain it).  Also, it’s an area where most courts are going to construe any ambiguity against the government most of the time.

    in reply to: Good effing grief! #4774
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    in reply to: Janet Yellen and Alfred E. Neuman #4750
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-wholesale-prices-rise-at-fastest-pace-since-2009-ppi-shows-as-inflation-pressures-keep-building-11620909721

    Producer Price Index increased by double what was predicted (.6%, expected .3%).

    Part of this is explained by the drop in prices (some deflation) last year in the first months of the pandemic.  BUT we’ve got supply and demand issues at this point, and inflation is a regressive tax on the poor.  Unfortunately, we don’t teach economics or math anymore, so the average voter won’t care.

    in reply to: Dollar dropping like a rock #4601
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    Could also be related to this:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/chinas-digital-yuan-what-is-it-and-how-does-it-work.html

    I feel like I’ve missed the crypto train, but every time I turn around, I think it’s a better and better idea.

    in reply to: Yellen at the moon #4593
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    New York is about to give us a natural experiment on raising taxes and the limits of tolerance of incompetent government.

    https://nypost.com/2021/04/05/concern-4b-in-tax-hikes-in-ny-budget-deal-will-cause-exodus/

    Of course, journalists believe that millionaires are an endless supply of revenue (tack on a wealth tax, and … whee!).

    https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article250360616.html

    Millionaire’s Tax Bill Would Create Additional Tax on CA Millionaires

    To be clear, I’m nowhere near paying any of these taxes.  But I believe that we should be encouraging everyone, no matter how poor, to save money and invest.  The war on savings essentially eliminates the easiest path to upward mobility for most people.  To be fair, some of the initial proposals were dead on arrival, but look at this list!

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-biden-tax-proposals-that-will-sail-through-a-democratic-controlled-senate-and-how-to-prepare-for-them-11609958777

    in reply to: Just for fun… #4592
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    Scott Adams (yes, the Dilbert guy) says that the longer Trump is out of office, the better he will look.  So far, so good.

    My brother tried the “they’re (the international community) laughing at us” early in the Trump presidency.  I pointed out that Trudeau can jab and laugh BEHIND TRUMP’S BACK all he wants, but NO ONE respect him. Trudeau has turned out to be a more ineffectual, openly ridiculed leader than Trump.  No one respects Trudeau, especially the communities he tries to pander to (see his India trip).  At least with Trump, you knew what the other leaders were doing (they knew they could score easy media points by making fun of Trump, while fearing his effectiveness).  Quite frankly, the whole Anchorage / China thing proved to me that Obama was right, Biden is a foreign policy disaster.  When Mexico is yearning for Trump, you know you are terrible.  Wanting to get back into the Iran deal… um, why?  There’s literally no reason to accommodate an untrustworthy and disruptive regime that doesn’t help us in the least.  The Abraham accords showed us that the Middle East is realigning, and we can either be on the right side of it / facilitating it, or… do whatever Biden is doing (resuming payments to the Palestinians? Getting back into the Iran deal? Why not just directly fund terrorism in the Middle East?).

    As for Kamala, she dropped out because she was running behind Andrew Yang in California.  She’s a terrible politician who benefited from California’s social promotion for Democrats program until Biden committed himself to a female, African-American vice president.  She’s a demonstrated liar, completely inauthentic, a prosecutor who jumps to conclusions without evaluating evidence, and someone who will say anything to win an election (and still puts her foot into her mouth on a routine basis).  Also of note, the media runs cover for her / promotes her, and she knows she will not be held accountable by them.  The media is already preparing the general public for the 25th Amendment proceedings.

    in reply to: Immigrants in an SUV crash #4444
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    I’m not sure the reference to “buses” was some weird racist dogwhistle.  My read was it was an effort to say that the accident may have been a vehicle transporting farm workers to work (and thus a violation of labor laws) as opposed to human trafficking.

    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/california/story/2021-03-03/cause-of-crash-that-killed-13-still-a-mystery-as-is-why-25-people-were-packed-into-suv

    This article also refers to “buses” in this context.  While I agree that the media uses trigger words, particularly in headlines, to shade the news, I don’t think this is a proper example of the practice, nor is it a Fox-specific issue.

    in reply to: Please keep Rocky in your thoughts #4263
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    Yikes.  I hope we’ve gotten much better at treating COVID.  What other symptoms is he experiencing?  Did his wife’s symptoms completely clear?  Here’s hoping for a quick recovery.

    in reply to: Governance by Executive Order #4240
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    What is more surprising is that a bunch of lawyers didn’t line up to challenge each and every one of them.

    in reply to: Which way for stocks? #4220
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    Sigh.  The Fed’s job is not to prop up the stock market, a complaint I’ve had since Bush II.  We have asset bubbles in everything, but at least we don’t (currently) have a bubble in bad debt (that I’m aware of).

    I bought some REITs during the pandemic crash in my Roth accounts.  I bought some tech as well.  But I have little confidence in the current stock market, I just feel like inflation, higher energy costs, and other factors will result in a rebalancing of the economy.  At the same time, the international economies aren’t exactly in great shape, and there aren’t that many asset classes that look attractive.  Maybe crypto?

    in reply to: The state of journalism #4175
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    “Saratoga (NY) Living” decided to publish a hit piece saying that the Barstool Fund gave $200,000 to Saratoga’s oldest Irish pub, then stating about Dave Portnoy, “But he’s anything but a do-gooder.”

    Still terrible.  Glad he’s pushing back.

    in reply to: Twitter suspends trump permanently #4166
    Avatarrogpodge
    Participant

    The background is, Twitter decided to unilaterally remove accounts supporting the current dictator ahead of an election, including official government accounts.  Of course, the dictator then suspended internet access to Twitter, Facebook, etc., WHICH PROBABLY HURTS THE OPPOSITION MORE THAN SHUTTING DOWN THE PRO-GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS.  In addition, it gives the current government an election interference talking point that will probably increase support for the current government.  Then Twitter decides to tweet that open access to the internet is a human right, which will be thrown back at them during the access lawsuits that are coming.  Really brilliant legal strategy, guys.

Viewing 15 posts - 541 through 555 (of 615 total)